Saturday, October 3, 2009

January 2009 Jobs Forecast with Updated Results

In January I wrote a post titled Predicting the Recovery about the Obama administration's report a out the job impact of the stimulus package.

For reference, here's the chart from that post showing predictions about unemployment both with and without the plan:


Here, thanks to Greg Mankiw, is the same chart updated with some actual numbers from the period since January:


Mankiw's analysis:

What does this mean? One interpretation is that the fiscal stimulus has failed to achieve what Team Obama thought it would. Another interpretation is that the baseline was worse than they believed at the time. I am confident the report authors would adopt the second interpretation. If so, that fact is consistent with what I said in a previous post: In light of the shifting baseline, it is impossible to hold the administration accountable for whether its policies are achieving their intended effects.

My analysis:

We're only now understanding the scope and depth of this recession.

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